Desmatamento nos municípios brasileiros: um estudo empírico sobre as motivações econômicas desta prática

Abstract

To measure the economic returns from deforestation in different Brazilian locations, this study evaluated data from 5,197 municipalities between 2008-2021. To this end, a dynamic panel- data was used, with interactive dummies and additional control variables, in addition to random- effects, fixed-effects, and system-GMM estimators. Initial tests indicate a bicausal relationship between deforestation and economic growth, reinforcing the need for system-GMM. Estimates reveal that deforestation, perhaps by expanding land use for productive purposes, would boost economic growth in the year in which it occurs. Therefore, environmental policies aimed at reducing this practice by 25%, 50% and 75% would have an annual cost to the Brazilian economy of R$ 2.56 to 2.81, R$ 6.13 to 6.72 and R$ 12.13 to 13.28 billion, respectively. Deforestation has proven to be especially advantageous in the grassy plains of the southern region, in places that are difficult to monitor, such as Acre and Amazonas, and in more populated areas, such as the states of São Paulo and Pernambuco.