Determinantes da ocorrência de crimes violentos em Minas Gerais: uma perspectiva socioeconômica

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the socioeconomic determinants of violent crime in the municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using biennial data from 2013 to 2019. The research is grounded in the Economics of Crime theory, particularly the rational choice model proposed by Becker (1968), as well as in the empirical literature on the socioeconomic drivers of violent criminality. The analytical method employed was a panel data model with robust Fixed Effects estimators (Wooldridge, 2001). The dependent variable, the Violent Crime Rate (FJP/IRMS), aggregates both violent crimes against persons and violent crimes against property. The findings indicate that violent crimes are predominantly concentrated in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, with no single explanatory profile, but rather a multifactorial combination of socioeconomic elements. The results suggest that higher levels of education and greater investments in public security tend to reduce violent crime rates. Conversely, municipalities with higher levels of formal employment and a greater degree of urbanization exhibit higher crime rates. Additionally, although socioeconomic vulnerability of families shows a relevant influence on violence rates, the estimated sign was contrary to expectations. Therefore, the study underscores the importance of public policies tailored to regional specificities and contributes to the crime economics literature by empirically incorporating the socioeconomic heterogeneities observed in Minas Gerais.