Efeitos diretos e indiretos da implementação do Sistema Penitenciário Federal sobre o crime no Brasil

Abstract

This thesis conducts an analysis of the policy of constructing federal maximum-security prisons currently underway in Brazil. In total, five prisons have been built, located in different states of the federation, with a sixth currently under construction. The methodology employed to analyze the effects of the already implemented prisons is the synthetic control method, recommended in contexts where treatment selection is not random and there are few treated units, conditions that apply to this study. The results indicate that the effects are heterogeneous, both in terms of magnitude and duration. In some cases, a negative effect on crime was observed. In others, the effect was positive. Regarding duration, some locations experienced temporary effects, while others showed lasting effects.