Impactos da situação fiscal do Governo Brasileiro sobre os resultados da política monetária

Abstract

The present work aims to analyze the effects of the Brazilian government's fiscal situation, expressed by fiscal indicators of the public debt, on the effectiveness of the anti-inflationary monetary policy. To this end, a Public Finance Quality Index (IQFP) was prepared and autoregressive vector models (VAR) were estimated for two samples, between 2003 and 2021, in which the finance index shows an improvement trend (2003 to 2012) and, then, a downward trajectory of the indicators (2013 to 2021) of the administration of government charges. The results indicate that fiscal policy shocks (IQFP) generate effects only in the long run and have reduced impacts on the consumer price index and the output gap. On the other hand, shocks in monetary policy (Selic interest rate) are able to produce the desired effects on inflation and output in a faster and more lasting way. The interaction between these policies in the first sample proved to be effective in controlling inflation, while in the second period the effectiveness in managing inflation was reduced and the interaction between policies changed drastically, from a context of coordination to another in which there is no good interaction between the fiscal indicator and the interest rate. In short, the analyzes indicate the need for coordination between these policies, and evidence of a change in the monetary dominance regime to a possible scenario of fiscal dominance.