Decomposição do PIB e a dinâmica do crescimento brasileiro: uma análise com diferentes desagregações territoriais

Abstract

Aiming to rescue the importance of demographic and social aspects on economic growth, this research decomposed the oscillation of Brazilian GDP per capita, between 2006-2019 (with different territorial disaggregation), in terms of productivity (PROD), mobilization of human resources (MRHD) and potential workforce (FTP) and evaluated their respective impacts (real and potential) on Brazilian economic growth, as well as their degrees of regional concentration, convergence rates and local determinants. The results indicate that despite the drop in productivity, the growth of GDP per capita was supported by advances in MRHD and, with less intensity, in FPT. Furthermore, it was noted that improvements in MRHD would generate the highest rates of economic growth, in relation to the other components, and that this would be the most regionally concentrated indicator and with the lowest rates of convergence. Despite the usual focus on productivity, the models focused on MRHD and FTP obtained greater explanatory power, suggesting that it would be possible to propose policies, with a high degree of statistical confidence, that encourage the most appropriate use of these i