Impactos econômicos sistêmicos da variação dos preços internacionais de petróleo: o caso da Colombia

Abstract

The strong presence of primary commodities as a driving force for exports is a reality for many developing countries. Oil, due to its scarcity and non-renewable nature, combined with its importance as an energy input, is a desired commodity traded on the international market. This dissertation aims to measure the systemic impacts of a positive change in world prices for this good, using Colombia as a case study. Through the exploratory analysis of the data together with the indicators of the Input-Output Model, the oil production chain in the country was built and those sectors most prone to exogenous shocks in oil prices were identified. The Crude Oil Extraction and Oil Refining Products sectors make up the production of this good in the country The analysis is expanded by using a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Orani_G, customized for the Colombian economy. Using the CGE model, a shock of 1% was established in world oil prices to verify the implicit elasticity of prices in two different scenarios: short and long run. Based on the model's variables, it was possible to systematically identify those sectors and products most impacted by the shock in both scenarios, as well as to assess the impacts on macroeconomic indicators as a result of the simulation. The conclusions point to mixed results, in which, in the short run, the shock directly impacts the sectors connected to the oil production chain, and, due to the positive variation of exports in relation to imports, there is an increase in the colombian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, in the long run, the results indicate a positive variation of 1,69% in GDP, driven by the increase in household consumption, investment and government spending. In turn, in the long term, the shock impacts the Colombian economy in a more diverse way, not being limited to sectors adjacent to oil production.