Efeitos das políticas de mudanças de preço sobre os principais combustíveis veiculares no Brasil

Abstract

In Brazil, the fuel sector, spanning from production to distribution, holds a central position in the economy, impacting costs across various economic institutions, household income, and the efficiency of productive sectors. Consequently, tax policies directed at this sector possess the potential to influence income distribution, shaping both consumption patterns and the economic productive structure. The significance of examining fuel taxation has markedly increased, particularly considering the federal government's tax policy changes since 2021 and the marginal adjustments in Petrobras' pricing strategy for gasoline and diesel. From 2022 onward, the nation has undergone a series of fuel exemption policies. The policies scrutinized in this dissertation encompass Complementary Law (LC) 194 of 2022, defining ICMS rates on fuels; Constitutional Amendment (EC) 123, also from 2022, introducing a competitiveness differential between biofuels and fossil fuels; and the International Price Parity (PPI), which has priced fuels relative to international prices and is scheduled to conclude in 2023. The objective of this study is to assess the economic, distributional, and CO2 emission impacts of these policies on gasoline, diesel, and ethanol. Employing the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) methodology, which conceptualizes the economy as an interconnected system of markets, where agents such as households, companies, and the government strive to optimize their behavior, provides the ability to scrutinize current tax effects and make future projections. This establishes a robust and comprehensive methodological framework for analyzing the economic and multisectoral impacts of fuel policies. The findings suggest stimuli for economic activity, long-term GDP growth, and diverse sectoral impacts. While there is an income gain for families, there is a tendency to favor higher social strata. From an environmental standpoint, the biofuels sector emerges as a challenge, underscoring the necessity for more comprehensive approaches. In summary, the study reveals a complex interconnection between economic stimuli, income distribution, sector dynamics, and environmental challenges in Brazil's fuel policies. Consequently, it is concluded that the policies have led to increased economic activity but have predominantly favored middle-class and wealthier families, exhibiting no effectiveness in reducing CO2 emissions.