Modelo de previsão de faturamento para otimização do planejamento financeiro no setor de churrascarias:um estudo de caso

Abstract

The present study aims to analyze and build a forecasting model for the monthly revenue of Churrascaria Cordeiro Grill. In this interim, time series analysis is used to find a mathematical-statistical structure capable of schematizing the forecasting process, aiming to assist in the development of a financial plan for the company. To underpin the work, an analysis of the company, as well as financial planning and the situation of micro and small enterprises in Brazil, was carried out. The developed study consisted of investigating and applying some data analysis methods that can be used as prospective tools for the foundation of the financial planning of this firm. The historical data set of monthly revenue covers the period from January 2017 to February 2024. By using the Box & Jenkins method, selected after comparing methods, it was possible to generate forecasts with good explanatory power and controlled error levels. Thus, it is concluded that the use of mathematical-statistical method for generating revenue forecasts can assist in the development of the enterprise's financial planning. It is suggested to conduct additional analyses on other variables that may influence monthly revenue, such as typical factors of the city where the company is located, as well as consumer data, so that financial planning becomes more accurate.