Impactos do fundo nacional de desenvolvimento científico e tecnológico na produção científica de pesquisadores brasileiros

Abstract

The study investigates the impact of public funding, through the National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development (FNDCT), on the number of articles published by researchers between 1998 and 2016. The central hypothesis is that public funding has a positive effect on researchers' scientific output. To test this hypothesis, econometric approaches were used to help minimize potential endogeneity. The methodology involved comparing data from funded and non-funded researchers before and after the implementation of funding by the FNDCT. Control variables were included in the analyses to ensure the accuracy of the results. The findings highlight the effectiveness of public funding policies in promoting scientific production, although the impact has diminished in the latter years of the period analyzed. The temporal analysis revealed that the funding had an initial positive effect that stabilized over time, reflecting a J-shaped pattern where the positive impact grows slowly at the beginning, increases significantly, and then stabilizes. It is important to consider that it is not possible to determine whether the apparent decline in the magnitude of the positive effects in more recent years is due to a natural stabilization after a period of growth or to a lack of consistency in public funding. The study concludes that public funding through the FNDCT had a positive impact on Brazilian scientific production, increasing the number of published articles and sustaining research during periods of crisis. However, the volatility and reduction of resources over the years highlight the need for more stable and predictable funding policies to ensure the continuity and progress of science in Brazil. Moreover, the average reduction in published articles was greater for non-funded researchers, indicating that public funding helped mitigate the decline in scientific production. The thesis underlines the need for a continuous and stable commitment to public funding for research, essential for the advancement of science, and for broader economic and social development of the country. Finally, the study underscores the importance of public policies that ensure consistent and sufficient funding for science and technology, considering the crucial role these areas play in innovation and sustained economic growth.