Efeitos econômicos e regionais de variações na eficiência portuária no Brasil

Abstract

The port sector exerts both direct and indirect impacts on the economy by facilitating the transportation of goods. Enhancements in port efficiency not only improve the economic performance of the sector but also generate benefits transmitted through the links between production and demand within the productive system, triggering positive effects across various sectoral activities and regions. Efficiency gains in port operations, by removing non-tariff barriers, can enable the national supply of goods and services, increase competitiveness, and reduce the costs of imported inputs and the prices of exportable goods. However, the effects vary depending on sectoral and regional interactions with port services, which are influenced by the specific cost compositions and demands of each region. Issues such as queues and delays in port operations can incur additional costs for buyers and sellers, negatively impacting sectors dependent on these activities. Studies show a positive relationship between port efficiency and macroeconomic variables such as GDP, employment levels, wages, and industrial development. Barriers to international trade contribute to low levels of foreign investment and reduced economic growth, while investments in efficient transport infrastructure improve the economic environment and attract new enterprises. Nonetheless, increased port efficiency can also have negative effects, such as the dominance of more developed regions over less developed ones, discouraging emerging local industries. This dissertation evaluates the regional economic impacts of variations in port efficiency across different Brazilian regions using the computable general equilibrium methodology, with port operational data provided by the Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários (Antaq). The research simulates scenarios of shocks to port efficiency and their repercussions on regional and sectoral economies up to 2040, with the aim of observing the economic impacts of the Brazilian port system reach the most productive ports in the Americas. Heterogeneity was found between the simulations carried out. Regional factors such as the level of economic activity and logistical integration with neighboring countries were relevant to the intensity of the economic impacts and the spread of these results. Positive results were found for macroeconomic variables such as GDP, employment levels and international trade as a result of the increased efficiency of Brazilian ports.