Resiliência regional, interdependência produtiva e espacial: avaliação dos impactos regionais e setoriais da economia brasileira

Abstract

Regional resilience is a fundamental conceptual framework for understanding the heterogeneous impacts of exogenous shocks on economies. Despite its growing prominence in the literature, methodological divergences pose challenges to empirical analyses. Given its economic and structural diversity, Brazil stands as a relevant case, being a developing country historically vulnerable to crises. In this context, the present study proposes a methodological advancement and a comprehensive empirical strategy, combining different analytical approaches based on productive and regional interdependence. Unlike conventional approaches, an ex-ante perspective of regional resilience is adopted, allowing for the construction of hypothetical crisis scenarios. Through input-output analysis, this approach enables, on the one hand, the identification of vulnerabilities that affect resistance capacity and, on the other, an exploration of the nature of impacts and the implications of interactions between sectors and regions over time. To characterize regional resilience, network measures are constructed to synthesize the importance of regions in different hypothetical crisis scenarios, and based on these metrics, a two-stage machine learning method is employed: unsupervised and supervised. The results reveal a clear territorial division in Brazil, marked by an agglomerative pattern in which neighboring states and certain regions exhibit similar degrees of resilience. However, within these same degrees, heterogeneity is observed, underscoring the importance of a systemic perspective in understanding regional differences. Specifically, a higher concentration of regional resilience is found in the Southeast and South regions, with São Paulo standing out. In contrast, the analysis of the North and Northeast regions reveals a predominant trend of low resilience, a characteristic present in most of their states. This pattern reflects the historical process of regional economic development in Brazil and its trajectory of productive concentration. When comparing regional resilience levels over time, it is observed that improving regional resilience is a complex and timeconsuming process, indicating that the integration of the productive chain of Brazilian regions still faces equity challenges and remains a persistent structural issue.