Crise fiscal e rigidez orçamentária no Brasil: desafios e caminhos para o ajuste

Abstract

Since 2013, Brazil has been facing persistent fiscal deficits, culminating in 2024 with an unprecedented fiscal credibility crisis. This situation reflects not only the mismanagement of public finances but also structural budget rigidity, characterized by excessive revenue and expenditure earmarking and the continuous growth of mandatory spending. This study examines the impacts of this rigidity on the State's ability to manage its resources efficiently and adapt to economic and social demands. The analysis addresses the challenges of achieving fiscal balance, emphasizing the need for structural reforms. These include administrative reform, pension reform, and the revision of budget earmarking rules as key pillars for modernizing public management and ensuring long-term sustainability. Additionally, the study proposes the consideration of a non-individual state capitalization regime to address fiscal pressures in the pension system. By exploring alternatives to mitigate fiscal constraints, the study aims to contribute to the debate on viable solutions that combine economic efficiency, social responsibility, and financial sustainability, which are fundamental for restoring confidence in Brazil's public finances.