Impactos das mudanças climáticas e do fenômeno el niño - oscilação sul na produção de soja no Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on soybean production in Brazil between 2010 and 2023, with a particular focus on the effects of El Niño and La Niña (ENSO). A modified Cobb-Douglas production function combined with a fixed-effects econometric model was employed, integrating georeferenced data and climatic variables to estimate soybean production value. Additionally, scenario simulations assessed the effects of temperature increases of 0.5 °C, 1.0 °C, and 1.5 °C on production. Results reveal that a 1 °C rise in average temperature during the soybean growth phase could reduce output by up to 74.36% in El Niño years and 70.6% in La Niña years. These findings highlight the urgent need for public policies to mitigate the effects of global warming and to foster adaptive strategies for agriculture.