O crescimento da produção de milho no estado do Mato Grosso: uma análise comparativa nos períodos pré, durante e pós pandemia (2018–2023)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the evolution of corn production in the state of Mato Grosso between 2018 and 2023. The analysis focuses on a comparative approach across three distinct periods within this timeframe: before the COVID-19 pandemic (2018–2019), during its peak (2020–2021), and the post-pandemic phase (2022–2023). The methodological framework is based on the Shift Share model, which allows the decomposition of production variation into three key components: cultivated area, yield, and crop composition. The findings indicate that the expansion of cultivated land was the main driver of production growth, followed by structural changes and improvements in productivity. Despite the global challenges imposed by the pandemic, the sector demonstrated resilience and adaptability, managing to resume its growth trajectory in the aftermath of the health crisis. Furthermore, the study highlights the relevance of public policies and continued investment in agricultural technology as essential strategies to sustain this growth pattern and support the consolidation of Mato Grosso as one of the leading corn-producing regions in Brazil.