Impactos das receitas de royalties de petróleo nos indicadores socioeconômicos dos municípios de São Paulo

Abstract

Oil exploration represents a strategic pillar for economic development, generating substantial revenues through royalties and special participations. In Brazil, the distribution of these resources to producing or adjacent municipalities aims to foster regional development, as established by Law No. 12,858/2013. This study aims to analyze the impact of oil royalties on the socioeconomic indicators of municipalities in the state of São Paulo. Additionally, it assesses the degree of budgetary dependence on royalties and their influence on socioeconomic performance. A fixed effects panel data model is employed, covering the period from 2005 to 2016, using data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and the FIRJAN Municipal Development Index (IFDM). The study also includes a categorical variable identifying municipalities with high royalty revenues, allowing the assessment of the magnitude of effects on indicators such as Education, Health, and Employment & Income. The main findings indicate that per capita royalties were not statistically significant for socioeconomic indicators, while per capita GDP showed positive impacts of approximately 2.00% on the consolidated IFDM, 1.30% on IFDM Education, and 6.54% on IFDM Employment & Income. Municipalities classified as “large” royalty recipients recorded increases of around 2.30% in the consolidated IFDM and 7.45% in the Employment & Income component, suggesting that the magnitude of the resources received may influence specific dimensions of municipal development.