Os Impactos do auxílio emergencial na inflação por faixa de renda no Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of Brazil’s Emergency Aid program on inflation across income groups, considering the heterogeneity in consumption patterns among socioeconomic strata. Monthly data from June 2007 to June 2025 are used, with a primary focus on the period from 2020 to 2022, when the program was implemented, to contextualize pre- and post-pandemic dynamics. The empirical analysis includes inflation by income group, economic activity, exchange rate, commodity prices, public debt, and income transfers. Time series models estimated in first differences are employed, given the absence of formal unit root tests, to assess the relationship between Emergency Aid and inflation dynamics across income levels. The results suggest heterogeneous inflationary effects, with lower-income groups being more sensitive to price changes in essential goods. However, the findings should be interpreted with caution due to potential econometric issues such as endogeneity, nonlinearity, and model specification limitations. As a suggestion for future research, the use of ARDL models and further investigation of endogeneity and nonlinear dynamics is recommended.