Análise da frequência de uso e desempenho das formações 4-3-3 e 4-4-2 no futebol profissional masculino nas principais ligas globais

Abstract

This study analyzed the frequency of use and performance of the 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 tactical formations in professional men's soccer in ten of the world's major leagues (Argentine Primera División [ARG]; Campeonato Brasileiro Série A [BRA]; Eredivisie [NED]; Fußball- Bundesliga [GER]; La Liga [ESP]; Liga MX [MEX]; Ligue 1 [FRA]; Premier League [ENG]; Primeira Liga [POR]; and Serie A [ITA]), between the 2015 and 2024 seasons. The research used a descriptive-analytical approach, collecting data via webscraping on the platform www.FBref.com, obtaining general information about the match and special game statistics (30 performance variables, distributed between offensive and defensive phases) from Opta Sports. Based on 34,517 games (La Liga [n= 3,800, 11%]; Premier League [n= 3,800, 11%]; Brazilian Championship Serie A [n= 3,799, 11%]; Serie A [n= 3,798, 11%]; Ligue 1 [n= 3,624, 10.5%]; Argentine Primera División [n= 3,578, 10.4%]; Primeira Liga [n= 3,060, 8.9%]; Fußball- Bundesliga [n= 3,059, 8.9%]; Liga MX [n= 3,013, 8.7%]; and Eredivisie [n= 2,986, 8.7%]) 25 different tactical formations were identified. The 4-4-2 formation ranks second in overall usage, while the 4-3-3 ranks third. The adoption of the 4-4-2 formation by at least one of the teams in each match was most significant in Liga MX (48.4% of games), La Liga (47.8%), and Primera División Argentina (47.3%). The 4-3-3 formation predominated in the Eredivisie (73.5%) and Serie A (40.9%). There was a decline in the use of 4-4-2 from the 2021 season onwards in Argentina, Portugal, and Mexico, while 4-3-3 remained stable over time, except in the Netherlands, where its use fell sharply from 70.4% to 31% after 2020/2021. The most common transition was to 4-2-3-1, occurring in 34.7% of changes from 4-4-2 and 41.1% from 4-3-3. The 4-4-2 formation showed offensive (Δ = 14.7% in shots) and defensive (Δ = 21.9%) superiority, with a lower number of goals conceded (Δ = 28.8%) and a reduction in the opponent's xAG (Δ = 19.5%). There was a significant association between formation and result (p = 0.001); the 4-4-2 formation had a higher win rate (41%) and average points (1.22 ± 0.09) compared to the 4-3-3 (36.1% and 1.09 ± 0.08), with a large effect size (Cohen’s d = –1.62). The results indicate that the 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 formations are widely used, with 4-4-2 associated with a higher win rate. However, no significant differences were observed in offensive or defensive metrics. The analysis of tactical variations between national schools and home field advantage remains on the agenda for future studies.