Gasto público em educação no Brasil: efeitos macroeconômicos e de capital de conhecimento sob o novo arcabouço fiscal

Abstract

Public spending on education acts as a vector for knowledge capital accumulation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth; however, its trajectory in Brazil is directly conditioned by the rules of the New Fiscal Framework (Novo Arcabouço Fiscal), which establishes real growth bands between 0.60% and 2.50% per year for primary expenditures. This study analyzes the macroeconomic, sectoral, and distributive effects of public spending on public education within the Brazilian economy over the 2026–2041 horizon, employing the BIM-RD recursively dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated for 2015 based on the IBGE Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The simulation strategy adopts a counterfactual withdrawal approach across three scenarios aligned with the fiscal framework's floor (0.60% p.a.), intermediate level (1.55% p.a.), and ceiling (2.50% p.a.). The results indicate that growth at the policy ceiling generates a cumulative deviation of 4.05% in real GDP by 2041, driven by the multiplier effect on household consumption and private investment. Real wages accumulate

an 11.00% deviation in the same scenario, reflecting higher demand for skilled labor in labor- intensive sectors. Conversely, growth at the floor level shows deviations of only 0.29% in real

GDP and 0.67% in household consumption by 2041, revealing a scenario of economic stagnation with minimal progress. At the sectoral level, industries such as Construction and Office Equipment contract at the policy floor and only respond positively as expenditure growth approaches the ceiling, revealing a minimum spending threshold below which productive linkages fail to materialize. The findings provide quantitative evidence that fiscal austerity on education imposes structural opportunity costs on the Brazilian economy, jeopardizing the accumulation of knowledge capital and the advancement of Total Factor Productivity.