O canal de transmissão da política monetária e a insolvência: uma análise do impacto da taxselic nos pedidos de recuperação judicial de micro e pequenas empresas no Brasil

Abstract

This research investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, operationalized by the Selic Rate, on the solvency of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil. Grounded in the Credit Channel theory, the study proceeds from the premise that MSEs—characterized by information asymmetry and a structural dependence on bank credit—suffer disproportionate liquidity rationing during cycles of monetary tightening. The central objective is to analyze whether the increase in the basic interest rate constitutes the determining cause of economic distress (a crisis driven by exogenous factors) in this segment, contrasting econometric evidence of insolvency with the Principle of Enterprise Preservation upheld by Law No. 11,101/2005. The methodology employs a standard literature review focused on the connection between monetary policy theory and corporate insolvency. Preliminary results from the review indicate a significant pass-through from the Selic rate to Working Capital interest rates, the rise of which acts as a trigger for Judicial Recovery filings. It is concluded that understanding this phenomenon is vital for distinguishing economic unviability from temporary (conjunctural) illiquidity, thereby supporting public policies that mitigate the side effects of monetary stabilization on the social function of the enterprise.