O efeito do isolamento social sobre a violência no estado de São Paulo

Abstract

The article investigates the effect of social isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic on violence in the state of S˜ao Paulo, focusing on municipal rates of intentional homicide, vehicle robbery, vehicle theft, and traffic accidents between March 2020 and March 2021. To identify causality, the study treats the pandemic and the subsequent restrictive measures as a natural experiment that abruptly altered population routines, significantly reducing social interactions and spatial mobility. Leveraging this quasi-experimental design, the study employs a monthly municipal panel, estimated using two-way fixed effects models and spatial lags of isolation to capture potential territorial displacements in crime. The results indicate that: a) social isolation did not have a statistically robust effect on intentional homicides; b) for vehicle robberies, isolation had a negative and significant effect in the fixed effects models, suggesting a reduction in this type of crime in contexts of greater distancing—although with signs of spatial spillovers to neighboring municipalities; c) for vehicle thefts, negative effects and pronounced spatial patterns appeared only in specifications with pooled data, losing significance when municipal and temporal fixed effects were controlled for, indicating less robust evidence. d) for the total rate of rape of vulnerable persons, social isolation did not exhibit a statistically robust effect, with estimates sensitive to specification and lacking consistent significance once fixed effects are included; e) for negligent bodily injury due to traffic accidents, social isolation showed a negative and statistically significant effect in fixed-effects specifications, suggesting a decline in such incidents during periods of greater distancing, while heterogeneity patterns captured by interaction terms were not systematic. Overall, the findings are consistent with Routine Activity Theory, particularly for property crimes, pointing to a decline in robberies due to reduced social interaction, mobility, and target exposure.