Avaliação do padrão de consumo de bens e serviços de saúde: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável para a economia brasileira

Abstract

The Brazilian population has suffered in recent decades transitions arising from changes in levels of mortality and fertility, which can be attributed to improvements in living conditions, due to advances in economic, environmental, and public health and medicine. One implication of this process is the increase in life expectancy, which directly reflects the consumption pattern of individuals. In this context, the present work was aimed at analyzing the impact of changes in household preferences toward goods and health services, and consequently the consumption of these goods and services on the production sector, macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, Trade Balance, Investment and Welfare, before this new scenario of demographic transition. For this purpose we used a Computable General Equilibrium Model, calibrated with data from the Input-Output Matrix for Brazil and the National Health Accounts, for the year 2005. We highlight the following results: i) to support the increased consumption of healthgoods, GDP should be higher compared to the baseline scenario, ii) to consume more health, agents reduce the consumption of all other types of products; and iii) the analysis of well-being to health shows that changes in prices and preferences toward these assets imply a rise in income to compensate the consumer for price changes, i.e.. it needs a higher income for consume more health.