Determinantes do crescimento das exportações brasileiras de soja em grão entre 1997 e 2016

Abstract

Soybeans have stood out as one of the main commodities exported by Brazilian agro industry in recent years, contributing positively to the country's trade balance. In this context, this paper aims to identify the main sources of growth of Brazilian soybean-to-grain exports, from 1997 to 2016. For this purpose, the international trade model Constant Market share was used. Performance indices such as: Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, Relative Position Index and the Coverage Ratio Index were calculated for Argentina, Brazil and the United States, the main producers and exporters of soybeans, in order to evaluate the relevance of this product to these economies. There is a continuous increase in Brazilian exports of world trade in soybeans, the world trade effect has been the main source of this growth, mainly due to the increase in demand for the product by China, the same is the main importer of this commodity in Brazil, accounting for a large part of the country's revenue, so it is verified that this country has a great impact on the effects of world trade and destination of Brazilian exports. Through the analysis of the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and the Coverage Ration Index together it was possible to verify that soybean in grain was a product of prominence for Brazil and the United States in all the years, for Argentina this commodity was highlighted only from 1998. The index of Revealed Position has indicated a tendency to approximate values between Brazil and the United States, such a path can be explained by the increase in the degree of Brazil's surplus participation, while the United States has been showing a reduction of the surplus level.