Competitividade dos setores de etanol durante a pandemia: uma análise com o modelo Constant Market Share

Abstract

This study analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the competitiveness of Brazilian ethanol exports, distinguishing between undernatured ethanol (HS 220710) and denatured ethanol (HS 220720). Using the Constant Market Share (CMS) model, the research decomposes the driving factors behind export performance across pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods (2018-2023). Results show that denatured ethanol experienced fluctuations influenced by internal conjunctural factos, such as fiscal policies and productive reallocations, wdhile undenatured ethanol faced more consistent losses in competitiveness linked to structural features of the international market. The methodology highlights competitiveness as the most decisive factor in explainig variations in export growth, underscoring the role of public policy and sectoral governance in the external performance of ethanol. By proposing a segmented analysis of the ethanol market, the study contributes to the literature by showing how external shocks, like the pandemic, affect different components of the sector in distinct ways.